Banking in 2035: three possible futures

Banks find themselves buffeted by a range of forces, many of which are accelerating. Long-term trends such as climate change and demographic aging are picking up. Shock events like the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have destabilized markets.

These forces of change are causing banks to evolve business models to meet new societal expectations and engage customers in highly dynamic digital environments. More fundamentally, the sector’s rapid evolution and uncertain future pose a basic question: What is the purpose of banks?

To chart a viable course forward, banks need a clear vision of the major trends and factors reshaping their sector.

This paper explores how the major forces affecting banks may evolve between now and 2035, seen through the lens of three potential scenarios. Each scenario is possible, depending on the course of events that unfold between now and 2035. The goal is to illuminate how banks can evolve their mission and business models to deliver value to customers, shareholders, communities and the natural environment.